About Laurela

We're building the future of probabilistic forecasting, combining AI analysis with rigorous methodology to track real-world predictions.

Our Mission

Laurela aims to bring transparency and rigor to predictions about future events. We believe that better forecasting leads to better decision-making.

Unlike traditional prediction markets or pundit forecasts, we use AI to systematically analyze news signals and update probabilities with full transparency into every change.

Our goal is to create a public record of well-calibrated predictions that anyone can follow and learn from.

Transparency

Every probability change is documented with clear reasoning

Speed

Daily updates ensure you always have the latest information

AI-Powered

Advanced language models analyze vast amounts of information

Our Methodology

A rigorous, systematic approach to probabilistic forecasting

Base Rate

Each prediction starts with a carefully considered base rate probability based on historical data and prior analysis.

Signal Detection

Our AI monitors news sources daily and extracts signals relevant to each prediction question.

Impact Assessment

Each signal is evaluated for its direction (positive/negative) and strength of impact on the outcome.

Probability Update

Probabilities are updated with caps to prevent overreaction, ensuring stable and well-calibrated forecasts.

Technology Stack

Built with modern, reliable technologies

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Large Language Models

Advanced AI models for news analysis and signal extraction

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Real-time Processing

Continuous news monitoring with daily probability updates

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Audit Trail

Complete history of all changes for full transparency

Get in Touch

Have questions about our methodology or want to suggest a prediction? We'd love to hear from you.